Old 05-17-2006, 22:15   #16
shadowflyer
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I am in a strange position as I prepare to deploy overseas. I am trying to get my family prepared for a deployment as well as begin preparations for "situations" that may occur. I am a Firefighter/EMT for a large metropolitan department near Atlanta by trade and of course would be on the frontlines of any Disaster/Pandemic. I am having a hard time convincing my wife that this thing could get "real" before I get back from deployment and that we need to be thinking about it and start preparing for such an event.

She is stressed as it is with me leaving my family for deployment and also listening to me tell her we need to be preparing for future events. She is not getting it....she tells me point blank...I dont have time to worry about getting ready for a pandemic that may or may not hit before you get back from deployment or 5 or 10 years down the road.

How would y'all try and convince her that is NOT the attitude to take.

*Sidebar--TR I will just be getting back from some "things" at FTCKY but will try and effect a link-up with y'all at BLADE 2006 if possible.

JJ
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Old 05-18-2006, 07:07   #17
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TR-
I think the post is great - reminds me how little prepared I actually am at the moment. I live in a HPD area, with little nor no 'real' security around infrastructure / service TOAs. The post made me think about how I would need to get out of the AO should an incident occur - and realized I didn't have an E&E plan (getting old and soft, I suppose).

In short - please continue.
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Old 05-18-2006, 08:27   #18
Goggles Pizano
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Planning with regard to civilians is difficult Sir as you well know. Please continue as this a perfect way to ensure preparedness in our own homes, and of course it can be passed to friends and family.
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Old 05-18-2006, 08:51   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Reaper

Frequency of Occurrence:

• Highly likely (Near 100% probability in the next year)
• Likely (Between 10% and 100% probability in the next year, or at least one chance in the next 10 years)
• Possible (Between 1% and 10% probability in the next year, or at least one chance in the next 100 years)
• Unlikely (Less than 1% probability in the next 100 years)
TR-great thread as always.

I see the above to be the key issue as it relates to getting the public, or in my case, CINC House, to take this stuff serious. In fact, most folks are totally clueless about risk management. They think the risk of something bad happening to them to be nil, thus there is no need for preparation.

Professionally, I'm involved in risk management as it relates to fraud. Some very so called sophisticated and intelligent folks live in their own little world of self-denial and are dismissive of developing any type of scientific approach to managing risk. They think it’s a waste of resources or view anyone thinking along these lines as “Chicken Little," part of the “Tin Foil Crowd” or worse, profiteers. Granted there is a growing movement in both the corporate and government community to take risk management seriously, but there is a long way to go!

Last edited by FILO; 05-18-2006 at 08:54.
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Old 05-18-2006, 09:08   #20
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The way we do risk assessment in the Army is to compare the likelihood to the potential severity to obtain a level of risk and then in the case of higher risk activities, attempt to mitigate it.

I strongly suspect that this was a civilian industry practice we adopted, it has its pros and cons. To me, the key point is risk awareness. Outside of airborne operations, many people had never before looked at what they were doing and what could happen with a good thorough review. The issue beyond that is organizations that become risk averse, failing to adequately prepare their soldiers due to the possibility that someone could be hurt.

In the case of a hurricane, we have pretty good models and predictions to help with our analysis. With a potential avian flu pandemic, as mugwump has pointed out, we have a lot of fluctuations in both the probability of HTH transmission occuring, and the potential mortaility rate. This may be a case where you have to review your normal preparations and plan to add what you can use in any disaster anyway now, and to pick up a few more items or make changes in our activity as we see which way this may break. The key is going to be identifying a critical point, and acting quickly once that is reached, before the supply system is cleared out and good social order breaks down. For example, it is a bit late to be shopping for Tamiflu, and it would not have a lot of potential use other than in a flu pandemic. OTOH, buying a generator could be a good move for a number of contingencies. You have to make your plan with the best available knowledge and resources, make changes as necessary, and act on it at the appropriate times.

TR
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Old 05-18-2006, 10:57   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Reaper
To me, the key point is risk awareness. TR
We are in agreement with but minor additional comments. The risk awareness has to be accompanied by:

1) realistic and achievable plans or options, and
2) a commitment, focus and follow through on the part of the decision-makers to incorporate the plan or option in the presence of an event, and
3) a regular assessment of the plans because things change.

If you don't have 1-3 risk management becomes an academic exercise and is of little practical use.
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Old 05-18-2006, 10:59   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Reaper
The way we do risk assessment in the Army is to compare the likelihood to the potential severity to obtain a level of risk and then in the case of higher risk activities, attempt to mitigate it.

I strongly suspect that this was a civilian industry practice we adopted, it has its pros and cons. TR
Yes, the civilian equivalent with respect to risk management uses a formula based on ALE:

ANNUAL LOSS EXPECTANCY. ALE is the foundation of risk assessment. It is what it sounds like: how much money you expect to lose per year due to some sort of security incident. Note that this is different than the raw cost of an incident (which, remember, you should always keep as a baseline). It's actually the raw cost times the probability of an event in the next year. So the ALE of a security breach that costs $1 million and has a 40 percent chance of happening is:

Incident cost X Probability of incident = ALE
$1,000,000 X 0.4 = $400,000

From a military or non-corporate setting the "incident cost" is replaced by some other measurable variable of value.

This is the simplistic version and you can get into more complex equations, but, at least its the begining process of evaluating risk from a scientific perspective. IMHO, risk management is another tool in the box and is a process which allows you to be better prepared to function as a result of unforeen occurences. However, I've seen folks get so caught up in the process they fail to see the forest. For example, the cost of measuring the process outweighs the actual cost posed by the risk.
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Old 05-18-2006, 12:17   #23
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Sir-

I am not sure if we want to get into the manusia of preparations on this thread or keep the discussion at 10,000 ft. If this post is inappropriate please tell me and I will edit it immeaditaly.

After talking with a friend I am going to buy a second (perhaps a third too) propane tank for my grill. The grill will provide a great back up to our indoor kitchen and we will not have to cook over wood or on my backpacking stove for a longer period of time.

We have been increasing our in pantry stocks of bulk pasta, rice, tuna fish, long life cheese, soup mixes and assorted beans. We are up to about a four week supply. The time the food is going to last could easily be doubled by going to half rations early. All of this food can be packed and will fit in our car. We are cooking with the food so we are automatically rotating it for freshness. I need to add "full fat" powdered milk for my daughter and to make my "world class" wilderness mac and cheese.

We have our own well so water is not a problem for us if we have power. We need save up to get either a hand pump or a generator for the well. I need a few kerosene lamps and a gallon of kero for some old school lighting.

I am not overly worried about combat, we can defend ourselves from small unorganized threats. I have the "run like hell" plan for an organized threats but I do not see that as a big possibility.
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Old 05-18-2006, 14:00   #24
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National Hurricane Center Director baffled by lack of concern

TR --

Back home now -- whirlwind trip -- I'll update the pandemic thread when I get everything I heard clear in my mind after I sleep. I'm a bit scattered - apologies if this is stream-of-consciousness blathering.

Great thread -- the disaster analysis algorithm really focused my thoughts. The "Frequency of Occurrence" scale seems spot on.

I got a quick peek at this, must have been the 16th? and it's been in the back of my mind since. What I thought then was you should hand out tasks surrounding your list:

Breathable Air
First Aid/Medicine/Escape gear
Defense
Shelter/Warmth/Light
Water
Food/cooking
Sanitation
Commo
Power/Fuel
Tools
Transportation/Mobility
Entertainment

I have specific unresearched concerns re: warmth (it can get -20F here), fuel storage (kerosene? storage life? I have propane tanks -- 3 of those barbecue-sized jobs and a few cases of 1-pound cylinders -- how long will that last for cooking, or w/ a catalytic heater?), commo (know nothing), defense (I'm all alone, suburban location, tactically naive), sanitation (no real plan), etc.

I agree that the focus should be general preparedness, but let me give an example in the pandemic realm as that's on my mind. I've seen stats that up to 15% might die from an otherwise survivable case of the flu because of dehydration (could be saved by a simple oral rehydration solution). I spent about 4 hours on the internet and came up with "use this", "no, that's obsolete, it'll kill you", "sucrose bad, glucose good", "sucrose and Morton's Lite salt is perfectly acceptable", "only use the UNESCO packets", "dilute Gatorade 3:1 with water". If you ask them, physicians are product oriented ("use Pedialyte"). Who has the space or $$$ for the several cases of Pedialyte that might be required for a family when a simple formula would suffice.

I'd like to see us split up the load, carefully research solutions, and present options somehow -- for good/better/best, short/medium/long term, urban/suburban/rural?

I'd like to see these topics researched and presented as I did with the HTH water purification post -- a "show all your work" presentation that can be peer-reviewed by PS.com and then given a seal of approval as a prudent, non-over-the-top, inexpensive, and safe/effective option to employ. Nobody has the time to do this stuff alone. There are places on the net that try to gather this information -- some could be used as resources -- but lack of discipline and general asshattery lead to chaos and just more conflicting opinions that aren't backed up.

Nobody can do your planning for you, but some of this stuff could be doled out I'd think.

Something I saw in the airport:

“Despite Hurricane Katrina’s devastation of Louisiana and Mississippi, coastal residents have not taken steps to protect their families if a hurricane were to threaten their homes, according to a poll released Tuesday.

Sixty percent of those questioned have no disaster plan, 68 percent don’t have a hurricane survival kit and 83 percent have not taken steps to make their homes stronger, the poll said.

Also, 48 percent of people living within 30 miles of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts said they don’t feel vulnerable to a hurricane, according to the survey by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc.

National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield said he is baffled by the apparent lack of concern.”


http://abcnews.go.com/US/HurricaneKa...ory?id=1970314
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Old 05-18-2006, 14:11   #25
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"I have specific unresearched concerns re: warmth (it can get -20F here), fuel storage (kerosene? storage life? I have propane tanks -- 3 of those barbecue-sized jobs and a few cases of 1-pound cylinders -- how long will that last for cooking, or w/ a catalytic heater?), commo (know nothing), defense (I'm all alone, suburban location, tactically naive), sanitation (no real plan), etc."

Read my post again, sorry for all of the "I...I...I" stuff. I guess what I was trying to say is that there must be others here in the same boat -- clueless in some areas but quite knowledgeable in others -- and we could share the load.
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Old 05-18-2006, 14:26   #26
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The Reaper, excellent information. Thank you.
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Old 05-18-2006, 15:03   #27
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Shelf life - Kero

Mugwump-
Kero is a first level distillate like diesel, and will collect biocrud if not treated (not as badly as diesel) also cetane rated fuels have a shelf life of about 3-6 months before they start to degrade, kero is at the far end (6mo) side of the scale. Hope this helps, glad I own a diesel vehicle, had to learn this stuff - so I don't kill it.
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Old 05-18-2006, 17:34   #28
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Okay, we can try to discuss some of the planning considerations for the categories of needs we mentioned.

Under what disasters might breathable air be a concern?

TR
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Old 05-18-2006, 17:49   #29
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Breathable Air

1. a flooding situation
2. a fire
3. chemical spill / explosion
4. nuclear issue
5. high wind / dust situation
6. Bridge / Tunnel collapse
7. Injury to thoracic / cervical / cranial anatomies - or any hypovolemic situation.

I probably missed some, but I think I covered most of them

Each has a slightly different Breathable Air issue - but the Airway is compromised in all of the above
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Old 05-18-2006, 17:53   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Reaper
Under what disasters might breathable air be a concern?

TR
HTH bird flu.
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