Old 02-26-2020, 19:29   #226
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I’m not an epidemiologist but I sure wish people would put this illness in perspective, and stop freaking out over it.

Really, unless you are over 80 and in decreased health to begin with this virus is not, I repeat not, likely to kill you and you will recover basically on your own as it runs its course. Much like the flu or a common cold. If it’s not affecting children and young adults...why is not affecting those age groups?

Second, it’s a political and business choice to shutter manufacturing, close businesses, schools and other public activities. Is it better and more productive to issue adequate PPE to employees and keep things moving, or send people home and close assembly lines or whatever the process is that can’t be done another way?

Instead of crashing the stock market how about a public health warning that says if you are sick, feeling sick, have a fever and cough stay home, cover your mouth and wash hands often. If you have been to or traveled to an area with an outbreak self quarantine for two more weeks at home before returning to work. If you are sick and test positive for the virus let the professionals know how to back track your travels.

If I’m wrong let the illness prove that to me, we’ve been down this road before and there are a lot more things that kill a lot more people than this had so far.

Maybe I’m wrong, YMMV
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Old 02-27-2020, 09:35   #227
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Originally Posted by Old Dog New Trick View Post
I’m not an epidemiologist but I sure wish people would put this illness in perspective, and stop freaking out over it.

Really, unless you are over 80 and in decreased health to begin with this virus is not, I repeat not, likely to kill you and you will recover basically on your own as it runs its course. Much like the flu or a common cold. If it’s not affecting children and young adults...why is not affecting those age groups?

Second, it’s a political and business choice to shutter manufacturing, close businesses, schools and other public activities. Is it better and more productive to issue adequate PPE to employees and keep things moving, or send people home and close assembly lines or whatever the process is that can’t be done another way?

Instead of crashing the stock market how about a public health warning that says if you are sick, feeling sick, have a fever and cough stay home, cover your mouth and wash hands often. If you have been to or traveled to an area with an outbreak self quarantine for two more weeks at home before returning to work. If you are sick and test positive for the virus let the professionals know how to back track your travels.

If I’m wrong let the illness prove that to me, we’ve been down this road before and there are a lot more things that kill a lot more people than this had so far.

Maybe I’m wrong, YMMV
The bad group is >50, not 80, and one or more comorbidities like obesity, asthma, diabetes 1/2, hypertension, etc. That’s a lot of boomers right there.

While it can be quick, this is generally a long slow grind of a disease with a 10-30 day course before death. The 80 year olds go first and quickest, it’s just how it presents.

The guys closest to this have basically scuttled their South China Sea ambitions, Silk Road, etc. for the next 5 years. If it’s a nothingburger, why?

I agree CFR will come down as we get a clearer picture of numbers, but they already state 80% mild. It’s the 20% remaining where the devil is. Sun city, the villages, etc. are in for a ride.

Equating this with seasonal flu is just not borne out by the current facts, but I guess we’ll see.
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Old 02-27-2020, 09:43   #228
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The community case Trump talked about was an intubated patient transferred to UC Davis Medical from another undisclosed hospital, assumed to be in the SF area.

Davis instituted droplet control, but not airborne, within a day and airborne control after 4 more days. But...no special PPE, no special procedures for infectious disease presumedly at hospital number one or Davis.

Everyone who treated the patient at either hospital, or was involved in transport, are exposed.

And, the patient presumedly came from a community cluster. No China contact, or contact with China contact.

I’m assuming we’re looking at school closures in Cali in 7-10 days.

I thought Trump looked ill or exhausted. Maybe he was just scared.
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Old 02-27-2020, 09:55   #229
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14% of Recovered covid19 patients in Guangdong tested positive again. This is very worrying, suggesting there is no memory antibody response, just innate immunity. Will make vaccine effort more difficult.

A Laurie Garrett tweet.

This is a coronavirus. Not the flu. This will likely transition to being another disease like the seasonal flu in a couple years, but it will have to burn through the population first.

The tale will be told in a 4 week period now that it’s uncontained in Cali, so I’ll shut up now a watch. Good luck all.
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Old 02-27-2020, 09:57   #230
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So now they're saying NorCal has, as far as they know, a "spontaneously" infected individual? So now this thing can pole-vault across the Pacific?
https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/he...240674471.html
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Old 02-27-2020, 10:14   #231
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So now they're saying NorCal has, as far as they know, a "spontaneously" infected individual? So now this thing can pole-vault across the Pacific?
MSN now has something better The Bern Title Wave
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Old 02-27-2020, 10:21   #232
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So now they're saying NorCal has, as far as they know, a "spontaneously" infected individual? So now this thing can pole-vault across the Pacific?
https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/he...240674471.html

Cali had 6400 under 'voluntary isolation.' All had China travel. None were tested. No pole vaulting necessary.
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Old 02-27-2020, 10:34   #233
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Gentlemen

The latest WHO update says we are in the 3rd bordering the 4th (worst) level of spread and the ability to contain.

https://youtu.be/6bKjQ4Q9fFU

The real test comes a couple days after the schools start closing. After that the local supply chains will have to work hard to keep everyday items (milk, eggs, children's Tylenol) in stock with the majority of the population sitting at home.
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Old 02-27-2020, 10:46   #234
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If Abx = antibiotics, SO WHAT???? This is a viral infection!
Yeah sorry antibiotics.

I was talking supply chain effects. There are other diseases and other patients being treated other than flu and covid. No antibiotics, pressors, antineoplastics, etc is kinda a big deal.

No abx for bacterial pneumonia prophylaxis in intubated patients is problematic.

And historically, the community acquired bacterial pneumonia following respiratory disease is a big killer. No abx is a big deal.
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Old 02-27-2020, 14:28   #235
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Mugwump, I’ll defer to your continued interest in this event and wait and watch all the hysteria as it unfolds. The world is over crowded in certain areas and places like San Francisco needs a good enema anyways.

As for the Iranian leader who helped orchestrate the Tehran hostage ordeal being infected...good for him!

If the Chinese weaponized a strain of Coronavirus that’s been around as long as most of us have been alive to kill us all...then we deserve it. (Watching them first)
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Old 02-27-2020, 14:38   #236
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Mugwump, I’ll defer to your continued interest in this event and wait and watch all the hysteria as it unfolds. The world is over crowded in certain areas and places like San Francisco needs a good enema anyways.

As for the Iranian leader who helped orchestrate the Tehran hostage ordeal being infected...good for him!

If the Chinese weaponized a strain of Coronavirus that’s been around as long as most of us have been alive to kill us all...then we deserve it. (Watching them first)
I’m not saying seasonal flu isn’t deadly. I’m saying this is worse.

The genetics of coronaviruses is beyond me, but people I trust say no fingerprints of genetic manipulation. My personal opinion is this is an obscure bat virus that inadvertently escaped containment. That Wuhan level 4 facility has had at least 4 SARS escapes in the last 7 years, quickly contained. I think Xi thought they could contain this one and no one would be wiser. Fail.

There are a lot of good people in SF. Turns out the initial hospital was in Sacramento.
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Old 02-27-2020, 15:31   #237
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No abx for bacterial pneumonia prophylaxis in intubated patients is problematic.

And historically, the community acquired bacterial pneumonia following respiratory disease is a big killer. No abx is a big deal.
I'm looking for peer reviewed papers or med journal articles that clearly state the degree to which previous vaccination for Pneumovax 13, Pneumovax 23, and HiB (Haemophilus Influenza Type B) reduce the incidence or severity of community or hospital acquired pneumonia, especially in conditions where antibiotics are not available or the patient is allergic to the preferred med.

Seems that nowadays doctors simply won't prescribe anything "off label."
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Old 02-27-2020, 19:25   #238
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Interestingly enough, a guy I know just kicked Wednesday.

"She said he had a terrible January and finally succumbed to
pneumonia."


I wonder if they did any serious checking what did it on the corpse He was 70.

Can't wait to see how Spring Break goes...

Meanwhile...

https://www.americanpartisan.org/202...mic-world-war/
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Old 02-27-2020, 22:19   #239
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So Japan is closing the schools... but per the BBC "Officials have said child day care centres and after-school facilities can remain open."

wtf ???
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Old 02-28-2020, 07:41   #240
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Yeah sorry antibiotics.

I was talking supply chain effects. There are other diseases and other patients being treated other than flu and covid. No antibiotics, pressors, antineoplastics, etc is kinda a big deal.

No abx for bacterial pneumonia prophylaxis in intubated patients is problematic.

And historically, the community acquired bacterial pneumonia following respiratory disease is a big killer. No abx is a big deal.
Thank you for clarifying! Just need to keep this information highway clear from traffic jams and other speed bumps.
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