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Old 06-23-2020, 13:05   #1
Pete
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Possible Egyptian 'direct' intervention in Libya becomes legitimate: President Sisi

Possible Egyptian 'direct' intervention in Libya becomes legitimate: President Sisi

http://egypttoday.com/Article/2/8877...President-Sisi

"CAIRO – 20 June 2020: President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi checked on the forces in the Western Military Zone Saturday telling them, "The Egyptian Army is one of the strongest in the region. Yet, it is a wise army that protects but doesn't threaten, and is able to defend the national security of Egypt within and beyond its borders."

The president said that the Air Force, the Special Forces, and the Border Guards have been securing 1,200 kilometers of borders with Libya for seven years, and accomplishing missions that have not been disclosed.

"I'm so happy to meet you today. I got assured about the high status of your combat and technical competence. I see the Air Force and Special Forces are ready to accomplish missions," the president told forces.

"Be ready to accomplish any mission whether here within our borders or - if needed – beyond our borders," president Sisi addressed the Air Force elements in the Western Military Zone. ..."

Looks like the situation next door is beginning to irritate Sisi.
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Old 06-23-2020, 13:17   #2
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"CAIRO – 20 June 2020: President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi checked on the forces in the Western Military Zone Saturday telling them, "The Egyptian Army is one of the strongest in the region. Yet, it is a wise army that protects but doesn't threaten, and is able to defend the national security of Egypt within and beyond its borders."

The president said that the Air Force, the Special Forces, and the Border Guards have been securing 1,200 kilometers of borders with Libya for seven years, and accomplishing missions that have not been disclosed.

Interesting choice of words(or translation).
I'm wondering if he is warning the Ruskies to cool it??
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Old 06-23-2020, 13:46   #3
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Originally Posted by JJ_BPK View Post
Interesting choice of words(or translation).
I'm wondering if he is warning the Ruskies to cool it??
I am not sure, but I think Russia and Egypt are on the same side. The warning might be more directed at Turkey, as well as Islamist groups thinking they could use the disorder in Libya to interfere in Egypt in support of Islamists there.

Personally, I think Libya should have been split in two after the civil war, since Tripolitania and Cyrenaica have never really gotten along, and the current dividing line between the Tripoli- and Tobruk-based factions seems as much regional as ideological. But nobody ever asks my opinions on these things, and I am frequently wrong anyway.
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Old 07-20-2020, 12:36   #4
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Update

Egyptian Military Convenes to Discuss Invading Libya in Potential Showdown with Turkey

https://www.breakingisraelnews.com/1...owdown-turkey/

"The Egyptian parliament will meet on Monday to discuss President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi’s decision to send ground troops into Libya reports Aawsat.

The president, who is also the military’s chief of staff, still needs the approval of two-thirds of Cairo’s lawmakers as well as a recommendation from the national defense council before deploying military forces into combat missions on foreign soil......"
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Old 07-21-2020, 01:26   #5
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Are we looking the wrong way on Egypt?

Egypt dies without the Nile:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...060332700.html
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Old 07-21-2020, 06:42   #6
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Turkey's Erdogan says Egypt's actions in Libya are 'illegal'

Turkey's Erdogan says Egypt's actions in Libya are 'illegal'

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...155305229.html

"Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has denounced Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for supporting forces based in eastern Libya, after Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi met Libyan tribesmen who urged Cairo to intervene in the war.

Turkey has been providing military aid to the United Nations-recognised government in the Libya conflict, while Egypt, the UAE and Russia have backed its foes in a rival administration based in the east....."

Things just keep getting better.
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Old 07-21-2020, 15:42   #7
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Egypt approves Libya deployment, risking clash with Turkey

Egypt approves Libya deployment, risking clash with Turkey

https://abcnews.go.com/International...libya-71873091

"CAIRO -- Egypt’s parliament on Monday authorized the deployment of troops outside the country, a move that could escalate the spiraling war in Libya after the president threatened military action against Turkish-backed forces in the oil-rich country.

A troop deployment in Libya could bring Egypt and Turkey, close U.S. allies that support rival sides in the conflict, into direct confrontation.

President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi has called the strategic coastal city of Sirte a “red line” and warned that any attack on the city, which sits near Libya’s main oil-export terminals and fields, would prompt Egypt to intervene to protect its western border. ..."

From Egypt's border Sirte is about 2/3's of the way across Libya.
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Old 07-21-2020, 17:45   #8
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Egypt approves Libya deployment, risking clash with Turkey

https://abcnews.go.com/International...libya-71873091

"CAIRO -- Egypt’s parliament on Monday authorized the deployment of troops outside the country, a move that could escalate the spiraling war in Libya after the president threatened military action against Turkish-backed forces in the oil-rich country.

A troop deployment in Libya could bring Egypt and Turkey, close U.S. allies that support rival sides in the conflict, into direct confrontation.

President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi has called the strategic coastal city of Sirte a “red line” and warned that any attack on the city, which sits near Libya’s main oil-export terminals and fields, would prompt Egypt to intervene to protect its western border. ..."

From Egypt's border Sirte is about 2/3's of the way across Libya.

The only thing I'm keeping my eyes peeled for is how AQIM and ISIS will exploit the conflict to strengthen and rebuild their presence. Huge implications for North Africa with this. Although I doubt violence will spill into Algeria and Tunisia, if it does it would cross some serious lines there.

The instability will only continue to fuel illicit networks operating into the Sahel, which are occasionally utilized or co-opted by any of the several Salafi Jihadist groups running around. I'm curious about the French response to an Egyptian incursion in Libya..
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Old 07-22-2020, 07:29   #9
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Any movement of a large Egyptian force across 2/3's of Libya will pose a logistical challenge for the Egyptians.

While their army has been active the past couple of decades it's been mostly whack a mole in the East. US training has also been limited in scale.

The larger the force they take in the larger their logistical tail will need to be. The larger the tail the easier it is to chop on here and there.

So - will they go in at all? Go in using air power? Go in with a small force doing a show of force? Or go in with a large force and try and end it?

Turkey? It takes a while to load up an armored force on ships, move them across the Med, unload and deploy them. Air power to hit the tail? Need to be moving A/C to Libya now - but that will make them a prime target.

Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
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Old 07-29-2020, 09:08   #10
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This article takes a look from a bit farther out.

"War looms in the Mediterranean and Threatens to Entangle the Great Powers"

https://thefederalist.com/2020/07/29...-great-powers/

"....Yet the most fascinating balancing act is currently going on in the Aegean Sea, where war may rear its ugly head soon. I wrote recently that Turkey appears to be on a newfound aggressive streak with interventions in Syria and the reconversion of Hagia Sophia. Turkish warships also recently challenged a French warship. It appears they are not planning to stop there.

Turkey just offered moral support to Azerbaijan for a two-day border conflict against Armenia, which was backed by Russia, giving the unfolding situation an instant religious undertone. But while that incident occurred, Turkey dispatched more than 18 warships to accompany an oil and gas exploration mission near Greece and Cyprus. This led the Greeks to ready their warships and fighters, only to be brought back from the brink by a last-moment intervention by Germany’s Angela Merkel...."

More at the link.
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Old 07-29-2020, 09:28   #11
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Pete

What is the present optempo in North Africa? Are the MTT's on an active constant rotation or "as required"?

It seems (from a not well-informed outsider) that we are laying back and letting the Mediterrane locals play.
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